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Unclassified Complete
23857122-0457-180273-0018
National Archives and Records Administration
Confidence
75%
Credibility
70%
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Intelligence summary
The document reviews various reports of unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and provides an analysis of plausible explanations for these incidents, emphasizing the lack of definitive proof and the challenges in verifying sightings.
Tags & topics
Incident AnalysisPsychological FactorsUnidentified Aerial PhenomenaWitness Credibility AnalysisConsultantsReportsUAP
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plausible explanations for reports not otherwise explainable." Review
of ir. Fitt's report reveals that this conclusion is warranted, despite
its presumptuous sound. [r. Fitts provided plausible explanations in
six specific reports, one agreed with AWS, four agreed with Dr. Hynek,
and one Ir. Hynek could not explain and AWS did not mention.
GC. U. S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau (Appendix "H").
The Weather Bureau provided much information on the phen-
omenon of ball lightning and lightning in general. These phenomena
7S
cannot be ruled out entirely. However, none of the recorded incidents
appear to have been lightning.
VIe Summary of Results of Consultants
It can be stated with certainty that unidenti:
many different types of objects and not multiple sightings of the same
object or the same type object.
It is realized that none of the explanations given constitute
positive scientific proof. Such proof might be possible were fragments
recovered or were camase to property or injury to personnel sustained in
any instance. On the other hand, almost every incident has less than
legal proof that an object was seen, or that an object appeared or per=
formed as describec. Even in those cases where more than one witness
reportec, all witnesses seldom agreed on details.
the foregoing, the explanations proviced by consult~
In view of
ccepted as solutions to the respective incidents.
ing agencies are a
Of the 226 incidents under consideration in this report, 30
ust be disrerarded on eect of workable evidence. Eight were extracted
from press and radio accounts and are hardly more than rumors. In the
investigation of five others, the observers were found to have possessed
too vivid imaginations, were of low intelligence, or were morally
questionable. It is reasonable to assume that if these thirty inci-
cents hac contained sufficient information a proportionate number could
be explained as were the 16), incidents that have been explained.
With 194 incidents thus eliminated, there remain thirty-four
which contain some evidence but have no apparent ready explanation.
This statement is true only under the assumption that the evidence is
accepted as reliable and ke gle aa When psychological and physio=
logical factors are taken into ccnsiceration, all of these incicents
can be explained rationally, as pointed out by Rand Corporation and
Ire Fitts of Air Materiel Command Aero-Medical Laboratory (see Appendixes
"4 and "G"),
VII. Summary of ANC Evaluation of Remaining Reports
se remaining unexplained incidents (see Appendix "I") exhibited
few commori characteristics Two of them, by statements of the reporters,
would not have been made ae tie witnesses not read of the !'t. Ranier
Declassification Authority: NND 57565